I was caught by surprised, like a lot of people around the world on the Dubai World debt crisis (Who would have thought of it? okay, I do not pay much attention to Middle East markets) Dubai World has close to 60B in liabilities on the balance sheets, which span across the group of companies. 1 item worth mentioning is that Dubai World has assets of 99.6B at end of 2008. Dubai Sheikh has requested creditors to delay their payment and also seek funding from neighboring Abu Dhabi. Odds are that Dubai World would be able to ride this through.

Once these news broke out on 25th Nov, world major markets are falling all over, although at different magnitude. Over 2 days to weekend, Hang Seng Index dropped by 7%, which are attributable to HSBC and SCB who has credit exposure of UAE. SCB dropped by at least 10% in just 2 days.

For a portfolio which has a large exposure to financials, no doubt, like mine is heavily hit by such event. I estimate a 5% drop.

From the face of the Dubai debt crisis, it looks like the credit losses are contained. The direct impact on the banks should be relative manageable. Banks like RBS, HSBC, SCB should have sufficient balance sheet to absorb the shock. The indirect impact would be the more important one. The severity of the crisis would impact investors’ risks taking attitude (worrying that there’s more debt defaults to come). If we see a default here,in the short run, the recovery in prices will be minimal at best.

But never forget that such turbulences also present good buying opportunities for investors. I am looking now.

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A picture of Dubai Palm Island from Bloomberg.

For the past few years, I read quite a bit on world’s successful investors (like Buffett, Soros, Fisher and etc) and I noticed that many of them do keep a diary of their investment thoughts, ideas, decisions, glory and shame. Such a diary can be actually very valuable, not only it serves as a record of incidents or happenings. It also bring the writer through the reflective process, questioning/challenging past or future investment decisions. There is also one benefit, that is such a journal makes an investor face the reality, especially on a bad decision or judgment, putting it down in writing. This can be hard for most people. So, I shall  start writing down any crazy investment ideas I have in mind or shameful investment decisions I made.

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Almost 1 year since the rebound sparked by the financials in March, the same question still exists. Unreal Rebound?

Sometimes market does find hard to look beyond the current mess, doesn’t it?

Now TV was showing this movie earlier. Movie finished showing but the melody remains.

Yes, it's New Year! I always enjoy this time of the year, not only because of the public holidays, or joy of Christmas & New Year but also it's a time where you look back on all that has happened. It's a time where you look back & treasure all the happiness, remember all lessons learned, forget all unhappiness & hatred, forgive the unforgiven and look forward to the new year. It's like drawing a timeline on the calendar and start something new.

Earlier that day, I was looking through all my blog entries since I started this blog back in 2005. Before I realised, it was 2am in the morning. I am surprised by the number of entries, it's not only paragraphs of words, it's also memories. Happy, sad, struggling, lonely, loved, pissed, bored, drunk, hungry or blessed, it's all there. Indeed, I came a long way, from time in Sydney to now in Hong Kong as I'm typing this.

What have I done for 2008? Let's see. I started the year in Singapore, working in Group Securities Services. Then I went back to KL during February & March waiting for my move to SG and have one hell of a time in KL, I really miss my time in KL. I went to SG again from April to August, staying in Somerset Bencoolen & working at 53rd OUB is certainly nice. A lot of food, beers and kopi. Of course that's a time of stress, doubts, worries. Fixed perm roles and of course CFA paper that didn't go well. KL's wedding was quite fun, especially pk flew all the way back. Great friends great times.Getting ready for move to HK. The day I arrived in Hong Kong, Macau trips, chat till morning with Cat, exploring new places, new people, new work, new colleagues, university friends. Apartment hunting, furniture shopping, liquidity crisis, parents visiting, trips, Zack's wedding. A lot of work and staying late and Christmas party.

I spent the first day of year 2009 at home, watched a couple of old movies. Touching, romantic, funny, nice soundtracks and few drop of tears. This year, I do not many resolutions for myself. Not to tie myself with too many plans, as I feel 2009 will be a year of great changes. Many many things will probably not stay the way it is, be it the world, economy, people around or myself. Not to be bothered with things that are unpredictable but only live the present. But over next 1-2 months, I can see myself, work late, study, shooting photos, cook, travel, sing, maybe a little of gaming and spending a lot of money. But who knows?

What do you want for the new year? More money for the new year? or just being happy?

Time flies ever since I came to Hong Kong, every day every week just past by without any notice. Before I realised, this is my official 4th month, no joke! But on the other hand, I feel that I have been here for a long time. Maybe everyday here for me is so packed and there are not many days that I can really laze around or just spend time with myself. It's mainly work, settling down, exploring bits of HK and catching up with friends. Barely much time for myself! I didn't spend as much time reading, listening to music, managing my investments and researching as I did in KL and SG. After all, my brain can't really function after work, especially when I spent more than 10 hours in front of the screen and the phone. I just eat, watch TV and sleep, Star movies channel is my favorite! (only for weekdays la)

Aren't we in the mid of a financial meltdown now? I don't actually feel it frankly, there are heaps of work to be done, not like other who said there's nothing much to do. We are expanding our product capabilities, taking clients' assets from the fallen Lehman, preparing for client visit and also increasing our service network to interesting places like Brazil, Russia, Argentina or UAE. But it's out in the news that StanChart is taking 500 people off its headcount, not really worried about it cos there are plenty more to life than just work, right? As long we perform or exceed what is expected, there's nothing to feel bad about, even if laid off.

So far, I am glad that I made the choice to come to Hong Kong. Work has been rewarding, learning, exposing to much more than I expected in this role. Friends have been great, met few new friends and colleagues, hang out with some old friends from Uni and the fellow IGs and also people that I though I would never have the chance to meet again. Exploring HK is one of my biggest tasks here, while work is important, to appreciate life simple pleasures and being happy are much more important.

I didn't step out of my apartment today, lucky I survived with a pack of instant noodles, corn, oats and a cup of coffee. Just want to rest and spend some time with myself. Weekend is always fast, next week is a busy one. Let's look forward the new week, do more and do better than the previous! Before you realise the next weekend is here...

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Brought Zack to CWB for dessert during his visit here. He was shocked that the queue was so long!  My favorite durian dessert!! Yummy!

Yes, it has been really crazy, August has been a hell lot of work and personal stuff for me to handle. First, it was work, plenty to complete and little time left for me. Nevertheless, I did manage to complete them, but there are some more work coming from Singapore. After all, I am still under the Securities Services Group, under those same people.  Anyway, my last day was on the 28^th Aug which left me 3 days to arrange my relocation.

Don’t forget, I need to return to KL to return my pass, laptop, and conduct an approx 2-3 minute exit interview with HR. A day trip to and fro KL nearly drained every single joule of energy in me.

Then came relocation issues. There was a time where HR told me that my starting date in HK might be delayed. Luckily or unluckily, it was approved at the last minute. (If it’s not approved, I would have slightly more time to prepare my move).  I got the Crown relocations people to help me move. While I tried my best to fill in the 20ft container, that was given for my move. I fail badly as I only managed to ship 2 boxes.

Leaving Somerset Bencoolen is hard, after all I have stayed there for almost half a year. I have more things in the apartment than I expected. I went there with just one piece of luggage and I left with don’t- know-how-many bags. It would be so nice to stay in the apartment for long, everything is so convenient and place is comfy and staff are really nice (of course some are cute too).

Now, sitting infront of my comp, after a hell lot of packing, I decided to write something on my soon-to-be-dormant blog. Since I was 17, I have been away from home most of the time and it’s probably 5^th time that I move out from home again. As I get older it’s a little harder each time, maybe I am very close with my family especially since I came back from Melbourne. Can’t find words to say how much I thank my family for their support in whatever I do and I choose to do.

On the other hand, I noticed one similarity between all these moves, I will miss home badly but I am also looking forward to the new challenges, the new environment, new perspectives, new encounters and new life that I will get out of the move. Let the new HK adventure begins! Wish me luck!

Finally it's over! Even though I think I did badly but it still took me quite a long time to prepare for it. As much as it hope that it is the last CFA paper I am sitting for, I believe that I will be sitting for level 3 again next year. Not giving it up still, not so easy.

Anyway it's time to forget about the exam now, it's time to know the result of my job placement and see where am I going. There also plenty of things I want to do which I couldn't do for the past few months! Hmm, Like reading, karaoke-ing, my new language course, going around Singapore and also pluck some guitar strings after so long! Yeah!!

Just to reward myself forall the effort I put in, not the actual result, I bought a new Nikon D60 SLR, straight after the exam. It's SO fun! Haha

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First few shot with my new cam!! from my apartment, the newly wed and mr pk leaving